Macau Casino Recovery Could Take 3 Years

Macau GGR is estimated to drop by 80% in Q2, falling 65% in Q3 and then seeing some sequential improvement in Q4.

For 2021, Nomura gaming analysts believe GGR can recover to $22.6 billion, or roughly 62% of the 2019 level if the reinfection rate is low.

One of the analyst projections for the Macau casino sector sees no full recovery from the coronavirus crisis to 2019 levels until 2023.

Analysts with Nomura Group’s Instinet equity research arm have projected a three-year recovery timeline for Macau starting in June, with even that lengthy period predicated on a list of “common sense restart policies” and the absence of “reinfection.”

Analyst Harry Curtis and his team see Macau GGR dropping 80% in Q2, falling 65% in Q3 and then seeing some sequential improvement in Q4. While pent-up demand (cabin fever) is anticipated, social distancing will likely be enforced and the “dreaded” second wave of re-infection is a risk.

For 2021, Nomura gaming analysts believe that GGR can recover to $22.6 billion, or roughly 62% of the 2019 level if the reinfection rate is low. “To achieve this number, IVS needs to expand to larger, more distant provinces, mass and group visitors must have confidence in health screening protocols at the borders, and social distancing policies on casino floors should be relaxed, thus increasing the number of operational gaming positions during peak periods. An effective vaccine would likely be needed to exceed our 62% (of 2019 GGR) estimate.” As for 2022, the firm estimates that GGR will recover to roughly 90% of 2019 highs, borders, IVS and casino operations would have returned close to normal.