By deciding to choose this bet you have two powerful keys in your hands which will give you profit in the medium-long term.
The first key is obvious: You’ve already seen the first-half of the match. You don’t need to guess the starting lineups or the weather conditions.
You already have this information, together with a lot of other useful data: which team has more possession, what are the main tactics of the managers, how fit and in the game are the key players and how is the referee officiating the match.
The second key is the odds level, regardless of both team’s stats, shots on goal or general offensive and defensive play, the odds adapt to the first-half figures, such as the current score and the time passed. This situation will create a lot of chances to get value bets.Just an example for better understanding, you’re watching a match where the pre-game 1X2 odds were 1,70-3,50-6,00 and 1,80/2,00 on the over/under 2,5 goals market. How would these odds be affected if the match is goalless at halftime? Even if the home team is absolutely the master of the match, with strikers hitting the woodwork, having missed a penalty, and with 75% ball possession? All this information would be of course taken into a bookmaker’s consideration, but they can’t offer the same odds with half the match already gone. The most probable scenario is that the 1X2 would be transformed to something like 2,10-2,50-7,50 and the over 2,5 goals odds would rise to over 2,80. With home team domination during the first 45 minutes, a second-half bet on the home team or over 2,5 goals odds would be a valuable choice for you.
-Types of second-half betting
How do second-half bets work? There are two main types of second-half betting markets.
- The pre-match markets, with odds “evolving” during live betting: 1X2, over/under goal, both teams to score, correct score, etc.
- The specific second-half betting markets, which take little or no consideration of what happened in the first-half. For example, you can place a bet on “both teams to score in the second-half” market regardless of the first-half score, or even place a bet on “winner of the second-half”, counting only the goals scored after the break.
-Why not to bet pre-match on the second-half market
I’m sure you’ve noticed some second-half bets in the pre-game markets. These usually coming along with the first-half bets, which are by far more popular and valuable.
Our tip is to stay away from second-half bets pre-match, simply because you give away your greatest advantage, the knowledge you have after watching the first-half.
These pre-match 2nd half betting odds are based almost totally on numbers. Bookmakers just analyze numbers (which team has had better second-half performances, how many goals are scored in the second-half, etc.) and offer odds.
-Valuable odds on 2nd half bets
Finding odds value in 2nd half bets most of the time is simpler than pre-match.
For example, if the odds for a home win were at 1.50 before the start of the match, they should rise to around 2.20/2.25 at halftime (provided no team is winning). A pre-match home win offered at 2.00 odds should be offered around 2.60-2.80 or higher at halftime.
-2nd half bet statistics
If you’d like to win on the 2nd half betting market you need to do a lot of research and create a strategy. The most tricky part of this statistical analysis is the difference between first and second-half goals. There are teams with a high difference in their goals scored in each half, with most of the goals scored in the second-half, and you need to analyse this.
Best second-half betting strategies to follow
- Over 1,5 goals in the 2nd half: This is one of the most profitable strategies. If the score is 0-0 at HT, the odds would be higher than the pre-match over 2,5 goals market. If there’s one goal, then the odds are a bit higher than the pre-match over 0,5 goals. The best leagues to follow with this strategy are German Bundesliga and Italian Serie A. Some 60% of German and Italian matches have more goals in the second-half.
- Over 4,5 corners in the 2nd half: We advise this strategy in matches where the basic market of pre-match corners is 9,5 or 10,5 and in first-half there have been under 4,5 corners. Of course, the number of corners is affected by the current score, but in general, there are more corners in the second-half, regardless of the current score. The best leagues for this are the Dutch Eredivise and Belgium Jupiler League.
- Over 1,5 yellow cards in the 2nd half: Another strategy affected by the score. If the favourite team has scored a goal or two in the first-half, don’t expect big 2nd half aggression. But if its a draw or the underdog is winning, there will be much more attacking. In general, referees are most likely to give yellow cards in the last minutes of the second-half. The English Premiership is the best league to follow when it comes to this type of bet, with over 78% having over 1,5 yellow cards in second-half.
- Both teams to score in the 2nd half: This is a strategy where it doesn’t matter too much what the half time score is. Of course, the possibility is higher (and, of course, the odds are higher) when there’s a goalless draw at half-time. Try to follow leagues that have many goals and many teams who are at the same level and there’s no clear favourite.
- Late goals: This is another strategy, which we’ve analyzed in another article (Late goals betting market: How to bet and the best strategies to win). Betting on goals after the 75th minute is mainly profitable because of the increased odds. Try to find teams, which are capable of scoring regardless of the current match result. For example, Barcelona in La Liga or Liverpool in the Premier League who have scored after the 75th minute in over 50% of their matches in past seasons.